My Pick Process

I am a meticulous individual, especially when it involves money. Therefore, every pick I make has survived an arduous process. I don't bet sides or totals because I "feel it" or because I like the team. Here is my tedious process in a nutshell.

1.       Systems

·         I have scoured the earth for betting systems and have come up with a few of my own.  Often times high percentage betting systems exist for both sides of a game. This is one reason why betting systems alone won’t make you a winner.

2.       Betting Public

·         When the lines are posted I first look at the games that seem like obvious public favorites. When it’s all said and done I will most likely be betting against these.

·         Go to a site such as sportsbook.com, fantasybetzone.com, or thespread.com, and find out what % of the public is betting on what side. When more than 85% of the public is betting on one side it is usually dangerous. Remember, odds makers are some of the cleverest individuals and they aren’t trying to give away money.

·         Keep an eye on the results of all games, even the ones on you don’t bet. This is especially true after a week where most of the public favorites actually win. It virtually never happens two weeks consecutively.

3.       Coaching

·         I research the head to head history of the coaches. This includes when they may have been offensive or defensive coordinators.

·         Being that the spread is supposed to make the teams even; the team with the edge that day should beat the spread. The edge is ,more often than credited, found in coaching and in the game plan.

4.       Trends

·         Trends such as “Team A is 6-1 - against the spread - at home - this season”. Trends can be helpful but, like rules, they are made to be broken. Don’t go broke over a trend.

5.       Chronicle

·         The history of the two teams playing. Is it a rivalry game? Do they typically play close games? Has one team been dominating the series?

6.       Instinct

·         One thing my instinct tells me a lot is “leave this game alone”. Some games are just too close to call and there is no rule that says you must bet every game you like. 

      7.    Statistics

·         It would seem statistics are the most important factor in sports betting when deciding what side to bet. Statistics tell you how good a team is but a point spread is made to put the teams on an even playing field.

·         I look at statistics such as time of possession, red zone offense and defense, and turnovers to determine how I think the game will be played. After figuring this out I look back at coaching to see who should succeed.

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Creating an Edge For Yourself: Why Backwards Players Aren’t Effective Against Good Players

          Most card players are familiar with the count card system in blackjack.  The reason this system is effective, when used properly, is because the player increases the size of his bet when his chances of winning are greater.  To create an edge in poker you must apply the same methodology, although you can’t quite be as straightforward, as you will be easy to read and players will not pay you off. If you fall into a pattern of betting small when you have a monster and big when you are on a draw or have a medium strong hand then you are putting yourself at a disadvantage for two reasons; 1) The pots you play in with your big hands are smaller than the pots your opponents are playing in with their big hands and 2) To the attentive player; your backwards-playing style will be easy to read.  Imagine two basketball players were shooting three pointers for money.  Player A is a 50% three-point shooter from all over the court, while Player B is 30% from the right and 30% from the center, but shoots 70% from the left.  If they rotated positions, shooting from the right, center, and left, alternately, Player A would seemingly have an advantage in the long run.  Now, assuming he knows how good he is from the left, suppose Player B raised the stakes on every shot he took from the left.  Now his weakness in both the other areas of the court is offset and overcome by his strong side.  He has created an edge for himself. 

BIG pots are for BIG hands. A seemingly simple concept but it seems to be ignored by so many players who seem to believe deception is more important than maximizing their profit.

The Gateway

Football picks are a rare sight to see on my blog thus far. Although, I am immensely accurate on the few picks I have posted. I haven't been doing as much research as I have in previous football seasons because I've been so engulfed in my 1st gambling love: Texas Hold Em' Poker. These sessions I've been playing in local card games have been from 12-36 hours, multiple days a week, over the last few weeks. Last week was quite profitable. I made $2,100 in 3 sessions. So far this week I've given about $500 back in 3 sessions, due to some bad beats and cooler situations, but I hope to get back on the victory trail 2morrow. I've just begun reading Read 'Em and Reap by Joe Navarro. This is an FBI agent's in depth analysis on decoding poker tells. With dedication to learn, this book will be worth far more than I paid for it.

Bankroll Management

In any form of gambling, managing one’s bankroll, the designated money one would like to wager, is just as important as how skilled they are at the game. To be a successful ATS (against the spread) sports bettor, one must choose the correct side at least 55% of the time. This is because the house usually cuts 5% from the winner’s prize. How does this affect the amount one should wager?  The desired chance of winning is at least 55% of the time, which would have the bettor losing 45% of the time. Basic math reveals an effective betting unit.

.55 (55%)  -  .45 (45%)  = .1 (10%)

Voila!  10% of a bettor’s bankroll is the correct amount to bet ATS. Based on this calculation, one picking exactly 55% correctly would break even. A good sports bettor is usually choosing anywhere from 60-75% correct over the long run.

Remember, proper gambling is done looking at the profit in the long run. Don’t look for, or attempt, get-rich- quick homerun wagers and blow your entire bankroll. It takes discipline to manage anything responsibly.