My Pick Process

I am a meticulous individual, especially when it involves money. Therefore, every pick I make has survived an arduous process. I don't bet sides or totals because I "feel it" or because I like the team. Here is my tedious process in a nutshell.

1.       Systems

·         I have scoured the earth for betting systems and have come up with a few of my own.  Often times high percentage betting systems exist for both sides of a game. This is one reason why betting systems alone won’t make you a winner.

2.       Betting Public

·         When the lines are posted I first look at the games that seem like obvious public favorites. When it’s all said and done I will most likely be betting against these.

·         Go to a site such as sportsbook.com, fantasybetzone.com, or thespread.com, and find out what % of the public is betting on what side. When more than 85% of the public is betting on one side it is usually dangerous. Remember, odds makers are some of the cleverest individuals and they aren’t trying to give away money.

·         Keep an eye on the results of all games, even the ones on you don’t bet. This is especially true after a week where most of the public favorites actually win. It virtually never happens two weeks consecutively.

3.       Coaching

·         I research the head to head history of the coaches. This includes when they may have been offensive or defensive coordinators.

·         Being that the spread is supposed to make the teams even; the team with the edge that day should beat the spread. The edge is ,more often than credited, found in coaching and in the game plan.

4.       Trends

·         Trends such as “Team A is 6-1 - against the spread - at home - this season”. Trends can be helpful but, like rules, they are made to be broken. Don’t go broke over a trend.

5.       Chronicle

·         The history of the two teams playing. Is it a rivalry game? Do they typically play close games? Has one team been dominating the series?

6.       Instinct

·         One thing my instinct tells me a lot is “leave this game alone”. Some games are just too close to call and there is no rule that says you must bet every game you like. 

      7.    Statistics

·         It would seem statistics are the most important factor in sports betting when deciding what side to bet. Statistics tell you how good a team is but a point spread is made to put the teams on an even playing field.

·         I look at statistics such as time of possession, red zone offense and defense, and turnovers to determine how I think the game will be played. After figuring this out I look back at coaching to see who should succeed.

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